Monday, October 06, 2008
Do you remember when John McCain was an honorable politician, a man willing to work across the aisle for the good of the country? Do you remember when John McCain was a man of honor, a gentleman who jumped to John Kerry's defense when his party was tarring the war hero as a cad.
Do you remember when John McCain was a viable candidate for president of the United States?
Yeah, it's been awhile.
It's sad to see a man destroy his entire reputation in less than ninety days. Quite a whirlwind tour of accomplishment.
Do you remember when John McCain was a viable candidate for president of the United States?
Yeah, it's been awhile.
It's sad to see a man destroy his entire reputation in less than ninety days. Quite a whirlwind tour of accomplishment.
Labels: death of a salesman, McCain, pride
Monday, June 16, 2008
Like all good nerdy Americans, I've been reading fivethirtyeight.com for awhile now. And it depressed me. It depressed me because I was forced to revise my wild-ass guess evaluation of where the election really is likely to end up.
So, for proper context here, we need a story. I was hanging out with a nonpartisan group in 2004, and though they truly were nonpartisan, they weren't actually braindead, so were hoping desperately for Bush not to win reelection. There was optimism around the fine oak table. Everyone thought that Kerry's two-point lead augured well. Then I piped up:
A president with this track record shouldn't be polling higher than 30 percent, said I. Hush should be trailing by at least 20 points in the polls. Bush will win.
Psychic I am not, but Bush did win reelection. And now I'm forced to reevaluate my earlier optimism this time around.
A candidate who has witnessed the previous eight years of failure and responds by promising to follow those selfsame policies, merely with greater vigor. He's 72, can't give a speech to save his political life, and really honestly plans to take bad policies to a further extreme in the pursuit of Republican self-parody and the enthusiasm of his wary base.
Against a strong, engeretic, idealistic candidate who has ideas and policies that might take the United States in a positive direction at home and abroad, the first guy shouldn't stand a chance. Yet he's only down by 3-5 points in the polls. And the Republican attack machine has hardly gotten started.
Run monte carlos scenarios, and Loess regressions all you want, fivethirtyeight.com. Your analysis is missing the boat. Looks to this American like we're in for a long, painful four years.
So, for proper context here, we need a story. I was hanging out with a nonpartisan group in 2004, and though they truly were nonpartisan, they weren't actually braindead, so were hoping desperately for Bush not to win reelection. There was optimism around the fine oak table. Everyone thought that Kerry's two-point lead augured well. Then I piped up:
A president with this track record shouldn't be polling higher than 30 percent, said I. Hush should be trailing by at least 20 points in the polls. Bush will win.
Psychic I am not, but Bush did win reelection. And now I'm forced to reevaluate my earlier optimism this time around.
A candidate who has witnessed the previous eight years of failure and responds by promising to follow those selfsame policies, merely with greater vigor. He's 72, can't give a speech to save his political life, and really honestly plans to take bad policies to a further extreme in the pursuit of Republican self-parody and the enthusiasm of his wary base.
Against a strong, engeretic, idealistic candidate who has ideas and policies that might take the United States in a positive direction at home and abroad, the first guy shouldn't stand a chance. Yet he's only down by 3-5 points in the polls. And the Republican attack machine has hardly gotten started.
Run monte carlos scenarios, and Loess regressions all you want, fivethirtyeight.com. Your analysis is missing the boat. Looks to this American like we're in for a long, painful four years.
Labels: 538.com, McCain, Obama
